大師分析/葡萄牙對決土耳其 C羅的最後世界盃?

2022卡達世界盃歐洲區資格賽，擁有Cristiano Ronaldo將在主場對決土耳其，本站特地請來歐洲兩名具有執教經歷的António Barbosa、Pedro Bezerra針對本場比賽做賽事分析，讓大家看熱鬧更看門道。

葡萄牙、土耳其簡介

在歐洲區，三支附加賽小組出線隊伍，將與10支已確定出線隊伍，代表歐洲參加2022卡達世界盃，在附加賽C組賽事，義大利、北馬其頓、葡萄牙和土耳其將爭取唯一的出線機會。3月24日義大利將對上北馬其頓，另一場，葡萄牙將在波多火龍球場對上土耳其。

土耳其國家隊總教練Stefan Kuntz執教了四場國際賽，取得三勝一平成績，他認為”晉級這條路顯然是最艱難的，在這幾個月，從球隊、工作人員到協會全力投入，我對我們的表現是非常地具有信心。雖然Stefan Kuntz保持樂觀，但他強調這是最困難的小組。

葡萄牙國家隊的教練Fernando Santo，帶領葡萄牙獲得歐洲盃與歐洲足協國家聯賽冠軍，95場比賽裡獲得58場勝利的佳績，他認為”土耳其擁有非常好的球員，他們有時展現團隊合作，但有時並沒有，我們期待三月的比賽，我們知道土耳其是一支有潛力的隊伍，他們總是給對手帶來很大的困難。我們不能依照過往歐洲盃等比賽表現來評估他們，我們必須將他們現在的打法研究透徹，並且為比賽做出充分準備。眾所皆知，Fernando Santos 是位信念堅定的教練，例如在邊後衛缺陣的情況下，徵招曼城隊的Joao Cancelo來補強邊路實力。

初步估計，土耳其整隊加起來估計約有3億265萬歐元的市場價值，世界排名為第39名。而葡萄牙世界排名第8名，整隊估計約有8億950萬歐元的市場價值。儘管二隊整體上的差異，但足球場上充滿著以小博大的情節。

土耳其戰術分析

在先前的比賽中，因為對手實力的關係，Stefan Kuntz採用過422 、4141、 4231陣形。在先前的二場，球隊有堅韌的心理素質與強大的態度，從落後到最終取得勝利。這場比賽因為客場的因素，可能會以4231陣形為主，在防守層面，以中場防禦為主，球隊善長建立球員間近距離連結活動。

進攻時，進攻中場會積極參與行動，是進攻轉換時發動攻擊重要的位置，在前場中央位置，提供邊路球員支援行動，創造邊路空間，並提供對角傳球的支援位置。另外，在進攻組織上，土耳其隊會以短距離組織為主。當受到防守壓迫時，會以前峰 Burak Yilmaz的位置為進攻目標，同時讓邊後衛上前參與進攻，如左後衛Caner Erkin，而邊翼則對角跑位進入中央區域。

土耳其會以短球的模式來建立攻擊，前峰會移位，創造隊友中央突破的機會。通常土耳其不會在定位攻擊行動進行較長的時間。在後場進行定位攻擊，主要用意在創造前場快攻的機會(運用對手背後空間)。在防守上，會有強韌的意志，積極採取盯人防守(強悍防守，破壞進攻方組織活動) 。在中場區域，會是發動反擊進球的地方，是土耳其最具危險性的位置。在防守時，會讓Burak Yilmaz與Cengiz準備反擊，其餘8名球員會與守門員採取密集防守行動。土耳其在左路較為薄弱，尤其是在對手長時間採用定位持球進攻時，此問題會被突顯出來。另外，土耳其球隊組織上也較不穩定。但土耳其在防守執行力堅定，善長針對對手弱點來進行防守反擊。

主要球星

2號Zeki Celik，右後衛，會遊走在中場突破並具有相當不做的左腳能力，禁區外的遠射也相當出色

10號Hakan Çalhanoglu，中場，具閱讀比賽能力與發動活動焦點。

17號Burak Yilmaz，前峰，土耳其的進攻樞紐。

在戰術變化方面，一名中場球員上前參與進攻，形成雙前鋒的陣形。陣形以4411與442混合為主。

葡萄牙戰術分析

葡萄牙目前Rúben Dias、Nélson Semedo 、 Renato Sanches因傷缺陣，João Cancelo因黃牌累積停賽。Fernando Santos善於比賽中運用策略行動，雖然用人受限，但也提供Rafael Guerreiro (Borussia Dortmund) 與José Fonte (Lille)發揮的機會。葡萄牙隊具有強韌的心理素質與贏球意志，過往常在比賽最後階段進球獲勝。許多球員如Rui Patricio、Pepe、Cancelo、Bernardo Silva、Cristiano Ronaldo具有個人特色。在Fernando Santos領軍之下，球隊打法多變，執行力強，在個人與團隊表現皆有高水平演出。

葡萄牙在進攻組織上以短球為主，在定位性進攻上，防守中場與中後衛的組合，邊後衛如Nuno Mendes and Cédric Soares上前參與進攻，以提升整體的進攻火力。當邊路組織進攻時，會制造幾個情境:1)人數相同時運用個人能力，如Bernardo Silva 1對1單打能力；2)組合性攻擊，運用邊後衛上前參與進攻；3) 進入防守者之間的空間，破壞對方中場防守線。這些戰術行動皆能產生攻擊效果，產生進攻人數優勢，並在失球時也能夠延緩對手發動防守反擊的行動。Cristiano Ronaldo是葡萄牙的得分焦點，葡萄牙具有快速攻擊與快速反擊的特點。尤其是在前場能創造出許多完成射門的行動，Diogo Jota、Bernardo Silva、André Silva、Bruno Fernandes、Gonçalo Guedes、Cristina Ronaldo皆能在比賽中做出與眾不同的表現。

葡萄牙在防守隊形以4141為主，以產生高質量的壓迫防守為主，可在許多區域中進行強力的高壓防守。同時，也讓Rui Patrício有效地閱讀與引導比賽內容。許多球員，如William Carvalho (Betis Sevilha) 、Gonçalo Guedes (Valência)、João Félix (Atl. Madrid) 本賽季在自己俱樂部的表現出色。

在先前資格賽階段，替換球員時，會換上一名中場球員，變成442陣形；或增加一名防守中場球員，形成 4231 隊型。

主要焦點: Bernardo Silva會為比賽帶來多變與創意性的表現，Cristiano Ronaldo為得分的焦點。

集眾多高技巧球員與傳統戰術的葡萄牙隊，將會掌控比賽，不讓土耳其突破僵局，土耳其會利用攻守轉換與定位球的來爭取獲勝的機會。

Liverpool 前鋒Diodo Jota 認為:不管附加賽結果如何，對我們而言，為了我們球員，為了我們國家，進軍世界盃是多麼重要。相對地，土耳其每位球員也是相同想法。 

原文

In group C of the European play-offs are the national teams of Italy, North Macedonia, Portugal and Turkey. The winners of the three European groups will qualify for the finals of the World Cup. This will fill the last three spots on the European continent for Qatar 2022 world’s championship, for which 10 European teams have already qualified directly.

The match will take place, in one hand, at the Dragon Stadium in Porto Portugal, on the 24th of March. Throughout this period and since the definition of groups and games, the coaches of Portugal and Turkey show confidence:

Stefan Kuntz, the Turkish national coach, who played four games for Turkey, with a score of three wins and a draw, said shortly: “The path is clearly the most difficult. However, I have great confidence in our performance, considering the evolution that the team, the staff, and the federation has showing in the last few months.” the view of the manager is in the medium term, considering that they can surpass Portugal. Although optimistic, he does not hide that the group is “the most difficult”.

Fernando Santos the Portuguese national coach, winner of a European Championship and the UEFA Nations League, with a score of ninety-five games including fifty-eight victories, said “Turkey have very good players, sometimes they work fully as a team, sometimes not so well. We will see in March, but we must respect on Turkey potential. They always put a lot of difficulties for opponents. We cannot look now at the European Championship and what they did, then. We must study them well by knowing how they play, but mainly we must be well prepared for this kind of games”.
Fernando Santos is also a coach known for his strong beliefs and convictions, and the call-up of the Manchester City player Joao Cancelo is strong evidence of his beliefs about they will have success, since the full back will not be able to play against Turkey, but he will be able to play the next match, in wining case.

Assessing the value of the squad on transfer-market, Turkey is evaluated with an estimated value of 302.65 million, and in the FIFA ranking it occupies the 39th place. Portugal occupies the 8th place in the FIFA ranking and is estimated to have a market value of close to 809.50 million. 

Despite the differences, we know that football is prodigal in episodes of Davide against Goliath.

Throughout the matches Stefan Kuntz has changed the tactical structure of his team (having already started games in 442, 4141 and 4231) we think that the opponent’s specificity had a strong influence on their choices. In this game we may use the last structure 4231, considering the success obtained in match played away from home. The team showed a strong mental attitude, in adversity, being behind the score twice and managed to finish both games with victories. In defensive phase, the team is placed in a own midfield sector, with great proximity between lines.

In offensive phase, we may observe the great participation of the offensive midfielders, leaving the central forward as the main reference for the offensive transition. The preferred movement of the central forward is in supporting, providing freedom of movements to the wingers to explore the side corridors, and going depth through the diagonals that carried out in the ball side center back. Also, in offensive organization, Turkish team try to play short. However, when they are under pressure, they play deep in the offensive reference Burak Yilmaz, promoting the involvement of the full-backs, in particular the left-back Caner Erkin. Concomitantly, wingers move diagonally to the center corridor.

When they manage to play short in the creation stage, the central forward works as support for players that make the movements coming from behind. Usually, Turkish team do not have long periods of play in positional attack. It looks like the purpose of beginning the positional attack close defensive area seems to be to create conditions for game acceleration (space in the back of the opposing defense team). As a highlight it can describe the determination and mental attitude in the defensive transition, mainly in the face-to-face pressure (we must emphasize the impetuosity and aggressiveness attacking the ball, which sometimes may be restrictive on their structural organization). Also, the middle sector is quite dangerous, as the number of balls recovered, and goals scored coming from counterattack. This is the moment where Turkey is most dangerous.

In defensive phase, they leave Burak Yilmaz (used as reference and leading of defensive pressure) and Cengiz ready for counterattacking, often defending with a very solid block of eight players and the goalkeeper. Turkish team showed some weaknesses in their left flank. This is particularly evident, when the opponent develops a game focus on positional attack, with long periods of possession and not allowing transitions. In fact, Turkish team present additional difficulties in staying organized. They are a team with high pattern of cohesion with a defensive commitment, that knows how to quickly go on the counterattack and explore the weakness if the opponent.

As main references: 

2 -Zeki Celik – right back, for the breaking movements in the central corridor and good use of the left foot, with strong kick from outside box;

10 Hakan Çalhanoglu – midfield, for the ability to read the games and “to play and make play”;

17 Burak Yilmaz – central forward for his decisive participation in Turkey’s offensive game.

Some tactical variations may happen namely with the replacement of a midfielder for a second striker. The tactical system will in a mix between 4411 and 442.

Fernando Santos is known for his very strong strategic approach to the game. Some players limitations will happen as Rúben Dias, Nélson Semedo and Renato Sanches are injured, and João Cancelo (out for cumulative yellow card). Despite the limitations, this is often the opportunity to promote new players, such as Rafael Guerreiro (Borussia Dortmund) or José Fonte (Lille) some years ago. The Portuguese team has a strong mental attitude, and great determination to win, based on titles and victories with goals scored in the last minutes, and personified by great individuals such as Rui Patricio, Pepe, Cancelo, Bernardo Silva, or the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese team, under the command of, Fernando Santos has chameleonic behaviors, giving the game what the game asks for, through an apparent freedom and commitment of the players, that extract the potential of both the individual and collective skills.

In an offensive organization, Portugal option is essencilay to play short, with the defensive midfield between the central defenders, looking to play in a positional attack, with great involvement of the lateral defenders (right and left backs, one at the time) with great offensive capacity – Nuno Mendes and Cédric Soares.

When the team play wide field (from the right corridor to the left corridor or vice versa) by changing the side of ball possession, they try to create situations of 1) numerical equality taking advantage of individual talent, for example 1×1 of Bernardo Silva, 2) collectively advantage by the involvement of the lateral defenders in inside or outside areas, or 3) breaking movements of the midfielders in the spaces between the opponents Middlefield defensive lines. This tactical option in attacking promotes a great proximity between a huge number of players, ensuring the balance in the defensive transition and creating difficulties for opponents to counterattacking.

Portugal’s biggest reference Cristiano Ronaldo (best scorer in football history) is also the biggest reference in finishing. In fact, teammates are always seeking for Ronaldo in finishing zones. Despite what we described previously, the Portuguese team is more effective in fast attack and counterattack and knows how to exploit these abilities. In fact, it is in the offensive transition, by using the counter-attack and fast attack, that Portugal is more often able to create privileged situations to successful finish the offensive process. In this case, players such as Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva, André Silva, Bruno Fernandes or Gonçalo Guedes and, obviously Cristina Ronaldo, may do the difference. 

Defensively, Portugal is organized in a 4141, managing to press with quality and effectiveness in several areas of the field, as a result of a high defensive rigor and a good reading/orienteering of the game from its goalkeeper Rui Patrício. It is important to highlight the seasons performance, until now, of that some players at their club in particular William Carvalho (Betis Sevilha), Gonçalo Guedes (Valência) and João Félix (Atl. Madrid).

In previous qualifying phase, saw that at certain periods, there’s the replacement of a midfielder and introduces a second striker, Gr 442, or adds a second defensive midfielder using the Gr 4231 system.

main references: :

Bernardo Silva – for the versatility and intelligence he brings to the game

Cristiano Ronaldo- the best scorer in the history of football and all the records that

With players who have a high technical capacity and tacit culture, Portugal will seek to control the game and not allow Turkey to enter situations where the game is broken. Turkey will look for moments of transition and leave the game to overtake Portugal. Without discouraging the set paces, preponderant moments in any competition, with greater preponderance in an elimination game, that can give advantage to any of the selections.

Diogo Jota, the Liverpool forward, stateded “it’s that play-off or it’s nothing and we know how important it is for us players and for the country to be in this world cup”, this statement could serve any player from Turkey, to describe how these ninety minutes will be played.

文：António Barbosa、Pedro Bezerra

翻譯：陳永盛

圖：GoGoal編輯製作